Vanilla attention was never wrong. It was expensive. Everything since 2017 is someone looking at the bill and trying to pay less of one line of it. Laid out by the date each idea actually appeared, you can watch the field change its mind about which line hurts most.
Each token makes a query ("what am I looking for?"), a key ("what do I contain?") and a value ("what I hand over if picked"). Its query is compared with every earlier key, the scores go through a softmax, and the output is the weighted average of the values:
Each dot is a mechanism, placed by the date it first appeared and in the lane of the bill it mainly attacks. Filled dots were on the class list; rings are additions. The band on top names what the field was mostly trying to buy at the time. Years from 2023 on are drawn wider than earlier ones, because that is where most of the mechanisms are; the break on the axis marks the change. Select a dot to jump to its card.
The field swings between two bills, and positions decide when either comes due. Compute grows with n², memory with n, and the position scheme decides how large n can get before the model breaks. In date order, the attention swings between those lines in a pattern you can't see when mechanisms are grouped by family:
Ideas arrive years before their bill comes due. Almost nothing in 2025 is new as an idea; what's new is that its line of the bill started to hurt.
Every fix moves the bill to another line.
Exactness keeps winning the argument. Every approximation era has ended with exact attention made cheaper rather than replaced: FlashAttention in 2022, MiniMax M2 in 2025. The sparse designs that survived all keep an exact path: a sliding window of raw tokens, plus the selected tokens at full resolution.
If the pattern holds, after "memory again" comes length again. But this time the limit isn't compute or memory, since both have been cut hard. It's whether the model can use a million tokens. That points at the position line: position-free inference (DroPE-style), learned rather than fixed positions, and training on genuinely long agent traces. I'd also expect "learned selection over a compressed memory" to spread from DeepSeek to everyone, and the next fight to be about where that compressed memory lives (GPU, CPU or disk). That's a guess, not a date, so treat it as one.